Stress Testing using CRISK Methodology

The client needed to estimate capital shortfall following a climate-related shock, particularly focusing on transition risks arising from policy changes and physical risks arising from property damage.

Comprehensive Stress Testing‍

1. Used key indices to capture the climate risk factor (e.g., XLE and SPY) and market capitalization for the bank.
2. Measuring the climate risk factor using the above indices and the Transition Risk methodology published by the Federal Reserve.
3. Estimating time-varying climate beta through a dynamic conditional beta model.
4. Computing systemic climate risk (CRISK), i.e., expected capital shortfall of the bank in a climate stress scenario.
5. Comparing results with other Canadian and US banks.
6. Providing detailed insights into climate-related vulnerabilities.

• Improved understanding of capital shortfalls under climate stress scenarios.
• Enhanced risk management and mitigation strategies.
• Provided actionable data for financial planning and resilience.